Using exploratory modeling to challenge narratives of risk governance in Mexico City.

Abstract

Achieving more sustainable adaptation to social-environmental change demands the transformation of the narratives that provide the rationale for risk governance. These narratives often reflect long-standing beliefs about social and political relationships, ascribe actions and responsibilities, and specify solutions to risk. When such solutions are implemented through material investments in landscapes, these narratives become embedded in physical infrastructure with long legacies. Dominant narratives can mask a range of divergent problem framings. By masking alternatives, narratives can contribute to the persistence of unsustainable governance trajectories. Decision-support tools have begun to represent narratives as drivers of system dynamics; making narratives visible can reveal opportunities for more sustainable governance. We present the results of the project "The Dynamics of Multi-Scalar Adaptation in the Megalopolis", a dynamic, exploratory model of socio-hydrological risks in Mexico City that was designed to both endogenize and simultaneously challenge the dominant narratives that characterize water-risk governance in the city. Qualitative data characterize dominant narratives at city and borough scales. An agent-based model, informed by multicriteria decision analysis and coupled with hydrological, urbanization, and climatic model inputs, permitted the development of exploratory governance scenarios designed to challenge dominant narratives. Scenarios revealed how dominant narratives may contribute to the persistence of vulnerability "hotspots" in the city, despite stated goals of equity and vulnerability alleviation. Participatory workshops with representatives of the city government illustrate how making such narratives visible through exploratory modeling can lead to a questioning of prior assumptions and causal relations, recognition of a need for intersectoral collaboration, and insights into potential management strategies.