Higher labor intensity in US automotive assembly plants after transitioning to electric vehicles.

Abstract

It has been widely suggested that the transition to battery electric vehicles will require 30% fewer assembly workers than those needed for internal combustion engine vehicles. Here, we use publicly available datasets on vehicle production and employment to show that labor intensity has increased at U.S. vehicle assembly plants that have fully transitioned to assembling battery electric vehicles. During the production ramp-up period, labor intensity increases by more than ten-fold compared to historic combustion vehicle assembly labor intensity. For one assembly site studied, labor intensity and total employment remained three times higher after a decade of electric vehicle production. Our study suggests that it may take longer than 15 years for electric vehicle assembly sites to achieve labor intensity parity with internal combustion vehicle assembly. Thus, rapid widespread loss of employment at vehicle assembly plants is a smaller risk than many fear. Moreover, our study calls for more regionally focused analyses of the transition's effects on labor using data-driven and macro-level surveying approaches.