Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model.
basic_science · Level V
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 39300072.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-024-52508-x and PMC identifier 11413198.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Despite the increasing relevance of temperature overshoot and the rather ambitious country pledges on Afforestation/Reforestation globally, the mitigation potential and the Earth system responses to large-scale non-idealized Afforestation/Reforestation patterns under a high overshoot scenario remain elusive. Here, we develop an ambitious Afforestation/Reforestation scenario by harnessing 1259 Integrated Assessment Model scenarios, restoration potential maps, and biodiversity constraints, reaching 595 Mha by 2060 and 935 Mha by 2100. We then force the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model with this scenario which yields a reduction of peak temperature by 0.08 <sup>o</sup>C, end-of-century temperature by 0.2 <sup>o</sup>C, and overshoot duration by 13 years. Afforestation/Reforestation in the range of country pledges globally could thus constitute a useful mitigation tool in overshoot scenarios in addition to fossil fuel emission reductions, but socio-ecological implications need to be scrutinized to avoid severe side effects.