Technology availability, sector policies and behavioral change are complementary strategies for achieving net-zero emissions.

Strefler, Jessica; Merfort, Leon; Bauer, Nico; Stevanović, Miodrag; Tänzler, Dennis; Humpenöder, Florian; Klein, David; Luderer, Gunnar et al. · Nat Commun · 2024

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Abstract

In this study, we analyze the effects of technology availability, political coordination, and behavioral change on transformation pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union by 2050. We implemented an iterative stakeholder dialogue to co-design the scenarios that were calculated using a global multi-regional energy-economy-land-climate model. We find that in scenarios without behavioral change and with restriction of technologies, the target of greenhouse gas neutrality in the European Union cannot be reached. Already a target of 200 Mt CO<sub>2</sub>eq/yr requires CO<sub>2</sub> prices above 100 €/tCO<sub>2</sub> in 2030 across all sectors in all scenarios. The required CO<sub>2</sub> price can increase to up to 450 €/tCO<sub>2</sub> by 2030 if technologies are constrained, if no complementary regulatory measures are implemented, and if changes in consumer behavior towards a more sustainable lifestyle do not materialize.