Cost-effectiveness of population-wide genomic screening for Lynch Syndrome and polygenic risk scores to inform colorectal cancer screening.

Abstract

Genomic screening to identify individuals with Lynch Syndrome (LS) and those with a high polygenic risk score (PRS) promises to personalize colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Understanding its clinical and economic impact is needed to inform screening guidelines and reimbursement policies. We developed a Markov model to simulate individuals over a lifetime. We compared LS+PRS genomic screening with standard of care (SOC) for a cohort of US adults at age 30. The Markov model included health states of no CRC, CRC stages (A-D), and death. We estimated incidence, mortality, and discounted economic outcomes of the population under different interventions. Screening 1000 individuals for LS+PRS resulted in 1.36 fewer CRC cases and 0.65 fewer deaths compared with SOC. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $124,415 per quality-adjusted life year; screening had a 69% probability of being cost-effective using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000/quality-adjusted life year . Setting the PRS threshold at the 90th percentile of the LS+PRS screening program to define individuals at high risk was most likely to be cost-effective compared with 95th, 85th, and 80th percentiles. Population-level LS+PRS screening is marginally cost-effective, and a threshold of 90th percentile is more likely to be cost-effective than other thresholds.