Time-Series analysis of short-term exposure to air pollutants and daily hospital admissions for stroke in Tabriz, Iran.

Abstract

Air pollution is considered one of the risk factors for stroke prevalence in the long term and incidence in the short term. Tabriz is one of the most important industrial cities in Iran. Hence, air pollution has always been one of the main concerns in environmental health in the region. The patient data were retrieved from electronic health records of the primary tertiary hospital of the city (Imam Reza Hospital). Air pollution data was obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency and is generated by 8 sensor stations spread across the city. Average daily values were calculated for CO, NO, NO, NOx, O3, SO2, PM2.5, and PM10 from hourly measurement data. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA-X) model with 3 lag days was developed to assess the correlation. Air pollutants and hospital admission data were collected for 1821 day and includes 4865 stroke cases. our analysis showed no statistically significant association between the daily concentrations of CO (p = 0.41), NOx (p = 0.96), O3 (p = 0.65), SO2 (p = 0.91), PM2.5 (p = 0.44), and PM10 (p = 0.36). Only the binary COVID variable which was used to distinguish between COVID-19 era and other days, was significant (p value = 0.042). The goodness of fit measures, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Median Absolute Error (MAE) were 1.81 and 1.19, respectively. In contrast to previous reports on the subject, we did not find any pollutant significantly associated with an increased number of stroke patients.