The July 2024 Trump assassination attempt was followed by lower in-group support for partisan violence and increased group unity.

Abstract

The attempted assassination of Donald Trump led to widespread concern that the event would escalate political violence between U.S. partisans. While some politicians pleaded for Americans to unite against political violence and "turn down the temperature" on partisan hostility, others continued to engage in inflammatory rhetoric and blame. Using a national survey in the field at the time of the assassination attempt, we take the temperature of America's partisans before and after the event. We exploit the natural variation induced by the assassination attempt and large daily survey coverage (preattempt: 3,572; postattempt: 703; and 690 in a panel) in the days before and after the attempt to estimate the causal effects of extreme partisan violence on measures of partisan animosity and identity. Using panel and cross-sectional interrupted time series analysis, we find no evidence that the event increased tensions or support for retaliatory violence in the immediate aftermath. On the contrary, Republicans, including MAGA Republicans, became significantly less supportive of partisan violence against Democrats. Republicans also did not become more hostile toward Democrats; instead, their attachment to their own party significantly increased. Democrats experienced no change in attitudes. While nearly a third of Americans have no positive feelings toward the other party, and a supermajority have negative feelings, this animosity was not exacerbated by an extreme but salient instance of partisan violence. Despite the ills of modern political conflict, extreme partisan violence did not cause an immediate upsurge in support for violence.