Value construction through sequential sampling explains serial dependencies in decision making.

Abstract

Deciding between a pair of familiar items is thought to rely on a comparison of their subjective values. When the values are similar, decisions take longer, and the choice may be inconsistent with stated value. These regularities are thought to be explained by the same mechanism of noisy evidence accumulation that leads to perceptual errors under conditions of low signal to noise. However, unlike perceptual decisions, subjective values may vary with internal states (e.g. desires, priorities) that change over time. This raises the possibility that the apparent stochasticity of choice reflects changes in value rather than mere noise. We hypothesized that these changes would manifest in serial dependencies across decision sequences. We analyzed data from a task in which participants chose between snack items. We developed an algorithm, <i>Reval</i>, that revealed significant fluctuations of the subjective values of items within an experimental session. The dynamic values predicted choices and response times more accurately than stated values. The dynamic values also furnished a superior account of the BOLD signal in ventromedial prefrontal cortex. A novel bounded-evidence accumulation model with temporally correlated evidence samples supports the idea that revaluation reflects the dynamic construction of subjective value during deliberation, which in turn influences subsequent decisions.