Anthropogenic intensification of Arctic anticyclonic circulation.

Abstract

The past four decades have witnessed a strengthening of the winter anticyclonic circulation over the Barents-Kara Sea (BKS), a change that has contributed substantially to amplified local warming and sea ice loss, as well as to Eurasian cooling. However, the cause of this trend in the BKS atmospheric circulation remains unknown. Here we show that anthropogenic greenhouse gases are the primary driver of the strengthening of the BKS anticyclonic circulation, with anthropogenic aerosols playing a secondary role, both together accounting for about 86% of the observed circulation trend. Both forcings induce an amplified BKS low-tropospheric warming through coupling with strong sea ice loss. This amplified warming raises geopotential height aloft through thermal expansion, causing an anomalous anticyclonic anomaly, which in turn enhances warming and sea ice loss, forming a positive feedback loop. Our work provides a theoretical framework for understanding Arctic atmospheric circulation responses to anthropogenic warming and may have implications for climate and environment in the Arctic and beyond.