An interpretable radiomics-based machine learning model for predicting reverse left ventricular remodeling in STEMI patients using late gadolinium enhancement of myocardial scar.

Abstract

To evaluate the added value of the late gadolinium enhancement (LGE)-scar radiomics features in predicting reverse left ventricular remodeling (r-LVR) in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients using machine learning (ML). This retrospective study included 105 STEMI patients who underwent CMR within 7 days and 5 months post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) on 1.5-T or 3.0-T MRI scanners (January 2014-2023). Radiomics features from LGE scar images and routine CMR markers were analyzed using a LightGBM model enhanced by Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for interpretability. Patients were divided into training (80) and test (25) sets. Three predictive models were developed: traditional CMR, LGE-scar radiomics, and a combined model integrating both. Model performance was assessed using ROC curves and AUC analysis. In the training set, the traditional CMR model achieved an AUC of 0.745 (95% CI: 0.62-0.86), the LGE-scar radiomics model had an AUC of 0.712 (95% CI: 0.58-0.83), and the combined model showed the highest AUC of 0.754 (95% CI: 0.63-0.86). In the test set, the traditional CMR model's AUC decreased to 0.656 (95% CI: 0.42-0.88), while the LGE-scar radiomics model improved to 0.818 (95% CI: 0.59-1.00). The combined model achieved the highest AUC of 0.890 (95% CI: 0.75-1.00). SHAP analysis highlighted significant predictors such as infarct percentage of LV mass and wavelet-transformed texture features. Integrating LGE scar radiomics features with traditional CMR parameters in a LightGBM model enhances predictive accuracy for r-LVR in STEMI patients, potentially improving patient stratification and treatment personalization. Question Predicting r-LVR in STEMI patients remains challenging due to limitations in current imaging approaches. Findings Integrating LGE-scar radiomics and cardiac magnetic resonance markers in the LightGBM model significantly improves prediction accuracy for r-LVR. Clinical relevance This interpretable ML model enhances r-LVR prediction, supporting patient stratification and optimizing treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes.