Firearm availability and firearm incidents: quasi-experimental analysis using start of US hunting seasons.

Abstract

To take advantage of the arbitrarily timed increase in firearm and ammunition availability brought on by the start of deer hunting seasons to study its impact on hunting, and importantly, non-hunting related firearm incidents. Quasi-experimental analysis using start of hunting season in United States. Populations of US states with highest number of hunting accidents reported in the Gun Violence Archive for deer hunting seasons between 2016 and 2019. 10 US states (Alabama, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin). Average per capita weekly rates of firearm incidents overall and among specified categories of firearm incidents in the periods before, during, and after the opening of deer hunting seasons combined into a single analysis across four years and 10 states, adjusting for state fixed effects. Compared with control periods before and after the opening period, the start of the hunting season was associated with a 12.3% relative increase in the rate of firearm incidents overall (absolute change 1.34-1.50 incidents per 10 million population; 95% confidence interval for relative change 3.0% to 21.6%, P<0.01). Relative increases were observed for incidents categorized as hunting incidents (absolute change <0.01-0.05 per 10 million; relative change 566%), suicide (0.70-0.77; 11.1%), incidents involving alcohol or other substances (0.07-0.13; 87.5%), domestic violence (0.13-0.16; 27.4%), defensive use (0.08-0.10; 27.8%), home invasion or robbery (0.13-0.17; 30.4%), and incidents related to firearm carry licenses (0.40-0.48; 19.4%). No differences were observed for incidents involving children or police officers. The start of hunting season was associated with increased rates of hunting and non-hunting related firearm incidents, most plausibly because of the increased availability of firearms and ammunition. The results suggest that efforts to promote firearm safety at the beginning of hunting season could help reduce hunting and non-hunting related firearm incidents.