Prognostic gene expression signatures for HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

Abstract

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide, with HPV-negative cases being particularly aggressive. These cases often show poor prognosis and low responsiveness to radiotherapy. Improved prognostic tools and treatment strategies are needed to enhance outcomes. To evaluate the prognostic value of various gene expression signatures in predicting survival outcomes in HPV-negative HNSCC patients receiving radiotherapy and to compare their accuracy against the current TNM staging system. This observational cohort study used data from the European BD2Decide project, systematically analyzing gene expression in loco-regionally advanced, non-metastatic HPV-negative HNSCC patients (stage III-IVa/b) treated with curative radiotherapy (post-operative or definitive) between 2008 and 2017. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS), with secondary outcomes including disease-free survival (DFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and loco-regional recurrence-free survival (LRRFS). The prognostic performance of selected gene expression signatures was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and hazard ratios (HR) from Cox models. The study included 783 patients, with a median age of 63 years, mostly male (68 %), with significant tobacco (84 %) and alcohol (69 %) exposure. The 172-gene signature (172GS) showed the highest prognostic accuracy, outperforming the TNM system in predicting OS, DFS, DMFS, and LRRFS. Multivariable analysis confirmed its independent prognostic value. The 172GS gene signature offers superior prognostic information compared to TNM staging, supporting its potential use for better risk stratification and personalized treatment planning in HPV-negative HNSCC. Future trials should consider tumor biology and gene signatures for better patient selection. NCT02832102.