When an earthquake hits a war-affected population: longitudinal growth trajectories of psychopathology in individuals in northwest Syria.

Abstract

The Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in February 2023 represented a disaster within a disaster, as northwest Syria had been affected by years of war. Literature on the immediate psychological impact of such natural disasters in high-adversity populations is lacking. To examine prevalences, longitudinal trajectories and cognitive predictors of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression and generalised anxiety disorder (GAD) in survivors of armed conflict in northwest Syria exposed to the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes. We assessed self-reported PTSD, depression and GAD symptoms, as well as self-efficacy and repetitive negative thinking (RNT), at 4, 11 and 18 weeks post-earthquake (T1, T2 and T3, respectively) in 204 war survivors exposed to recent earthquakes. Retention rates for T2 and T3 were 84.4 and 75.8%, respectively. To determine trajectories of PTSD, depression and GAD, we conducted latent class growth analyses with time, self-efficacy and RNT as predictors, and trauma history, education and gender as covariates. Prevalences of probable PTSD, depression and GAD according to questionnaire cut-offs were 80.4, 79.9 and 70.1% at T1; 62.2, 57.2 and 54.2% at T2; and 62.1, 55.2 and 51.1% at T3. Across all disorders, three developmental trajectories emerged, with most participants following a recovery or low-symptom trajectory. RNT was associated with protracted recovery. Natural disasters are associated with poor mental health in individuals in war-torn regions. Although latent class growth analyses indicated prevailing recovery trajectories, prevalence remained alarmingly high across time. RNT emerged as a potential transdiagnostic factor across disorders. Research and interventions should prioritise northwest Syrians' unprecedented mental health needs.