Development and Validation of an ¹⁸F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography-Computed Tomography-Based Imaging Score to Predict 12-Week Life Expectancy in Advanced Chemorefractory Colorectal Cancer.

Abstract

Managing chemorefractory metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) requires a meticulous equilibrium between the efficacy and toxicity of interventions, a task compounded by the constrained life expectancy of the patient. While existing prognostic tools, such as the Colon Life nomogram, primarily focus on general patient conditions or a single diagnostic modality, they do not fully integrate the potential predictive value of multimodal data. This study aims to develop and validate an Imaging Score, integrating clinical and imaging features derived from whole-body ¹⁸F-fluorodeoxyglucose (¹⁸F-FDG) positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT), predicting death probability within 12 weeks from treatment initiation for refractory disease. The development cohort comprises 254 patients from three clinical trials. Nine clinical variables and six imaging variables were assessed. After optimal subset selection through recursive Feature Elimination with cross-validation, a support vector classifier-trained machine learning model generated the Imaging Score. Validation was performed on a real-life patient cohort (n = 74). Model performance was assessed on discrimination (Harrell C-index) and calibration. Final prognostic features included whole-body metabolically active tumor volume, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, visceral fat density, number of metastatic sites, body mass index, maximum standardized distance, and months since diagnosis. The Imaging Score demonstrated robust discriminative ability in both the development (C-index, 0.797) and validation (C-index, 0.714) sets, outperforming the Colon Life nomogram that tended to overestimate 12-week mortality. The Imaging Score, integrating ¹⁸F-FDG PET-CT imaging with clinical parameters, is an effective prognostic tool for patients with chemorefractory mCRC. This combination of imaging biomarkers with clinical factors improves discrimination, enhancing its potential for clinical decision making, patient stratification for chemorefractory treatments, and trial eligibility.