Emerging trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train in a warming climate.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 40315328.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adr7320 and PMC identifier 12047423.
- Licence recorded as CC BY.
- The licence permits redistribution, so the abstract is shown in full and the full text is available from the publisher.
Abstract
Since the late 20th century, an emerging atmospheric teleconnection pattern, the trans-Eurasian heatwave-drought train, has intensified remarkably during summer, correlating with a surge in concurrent heatwave-drought events from Eastern Europe to East Asia. Tree-ring proxies, spanning three centuries, reveal that the recent intensity of this pattern is unprecedented in the historical records. In contrast, the circumglobal teleconnection, which historically dominated the continental-scale Eurasian heatwave occurrences, has shown no discernible trend amid global warming. Consequently, this emerging pattern signifies a radical shift in Eurasian heatwave-drought climatologies. The mechanism involves Rossby wave propagation linked to warming sea surface temperatures in the Northwestern Atlantic and enhanced Sahel precipitation, both amplified recently by overlapping effects of anthropogenic warming and natural variability. Land-atmosphere interactions driven by soil moisture deficits further intensified the pattern regionally. Climate models predict that anthropogenic forcings will continue to strengthen the pattern throughout this century.