Global burden of occupational injury-related transport and unintentional injuries in 204 countries: trends from 1990 to 2021 with a 15-year forecast.

Abstract

This study aimed to estimate the burden of transport and unintentional injuries attributable to occupational injury from 1990 to 2021 and provided a 15-year forecast. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate (ASDR) attributable to occupational injury were analyzed using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for transport and unintentional injuries from 1990 to 2021. Future injury forecasts were derived using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model. Between 1990 and 2021, ASMR and ASDR from occupational injury-related transport and unintentional injuries declined in most countries. The Republic of Korea saw the largest reductions, with EAPC for transport injuries at -12.40 (ASMR); and -12.01(ASDR), and for unintentional injuries at -10.65; -8.81, respectively. Males consistently had higher mortality and DALYs rates compared to females. Projections indicate that the mortality and DALYs rates will continue to decrease until 2036, suggesting improvements in occupational injury prevention. This study found that ASMR and ASDR of occupational injury decreased. The prediction results show that the burden of occupational injury is still heavy and is a major public health problem, which highlights the need for regions to develop measures to reduce the burden of occupational injury.