Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets.

Dong, Wenjie; Ran, Qi; Liu, Fei; Deng, Rong; Yang, Jie; Wang, Kaixi; Wang, Xinyue; Zheng, Duofan et al. · Nat Commun · 2025

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Abstract

The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report highlights the reliance on sustainable socio-economic pathways to meet the 1.5 °C or 2 °C targets. However, these scenarios lack a quantitative assessment of the impact of global military spending on CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Our study shows that events such as the 2001-2011 war on terrorism and the 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war led to an increase in CO<sub>2</sub> emission intensity of 0.04 (95% CI: 0.03-0.05) kg/USD for every 1% escalation in global military expenditure as a percentage of GDP (MILEX ratio). This increase accounts for 27% of the total change in CO<sub>2</sub> emission intensity between 1995 and 2023. In scenarios where the global MILEX ratio exceeds thresholds of 12% (for SSP1-1.9) or 24% (for SSP1-2.6), the 1.5 °C or 2 °C climate goals would become unattainable by the end of the century, highlighting the urgent need for a more peaceful international environment to effectively limit global warming.