Global spatiotemporal patterns of demographic fluctuations in terrestrial vertebrates during the Late Pleistocene.

Li, Zitian; Fan, Huizhong; Liao, Ziyan; Wang, Yuxuan; Wei, Fuwen · Sci Adv · 2025

basic_science · Level V

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Abstract

Demographic fluctuations are crucial for assessing species' threat levels, yet their global spatiotemporal patterns and historical drivers remain unknown. Here, we used single whole-genome sequence data for 527 extant and widespread terrestrial vertebrates to investigate their demographic fluctuations during the Late Pleistocene. Effective population size (<i>N</i><sub>e</sub>) simulations indicated that all taxa experienced a population decline from the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). After the LGM, birds and amphibians underwent population expansion, whereas mammals and reptiles' populations declined. Regions with high <i>N</i><sub>e</sub> shifted from Neotropical to Afrotropical and to Palearctic, some overlapping with recognized glacial refugia and biodiversity hotspots. In addition, climate-related factors exerted long-term effects on <i>N</i><sub>e</sub>, while human disturbances might confine to specific regions around the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary. This study underscores the significance of quantifying vertebrate genetic vulnerability to guide biodiversity conservation in response to environmental changes.

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