An analysis of 12 major fracture subtypes in adolescents and young adults: Global trends and population projections from GBD 2021.

Abstract

Fractures represent a significant global public health concern, particularly affecting younger and older populations; however, there is a notable lack of comprehensive epidemiological research focusing on fracture among adolescents and young adults (AYAs). We assessed the fracture burden in AYAs using GBD 2021 data. Concentration curves and indices were used to evaluate socioeconomic inequalities. Trends and projections were estimated using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models. In 2021, the global incidence of fractures among AYAs reached 40.77 million cases, corresponding to an age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of 2156 per 100,000 population. Compared to all ages, AYAs showed a higher proportion of Fracture of hand (wrist and other distal part of hand) and Fracture of foot bones except ankle (Hand/Wrist Fx and Foot Fx), while Fracture of hip and Fracture of femur, other than femoral neck (Hip Fx and Femur Shaft Fx) were less frequent but contributed disproportionately to disability. Fracture of patella, tibia or fibula, or ankle (Lower Leg Fx) ranked first in all indicators, contributing over 70 % of Years lived with disability (YLDs) in some regions. Fracture of radius and/or ulna (Forearm Fx) ranked second in incidence but had limited YLDs impact. Fracture of pelvis (Pelvic Fx) caused substantial disability despite lower frequency. Girls aged 10-14 were the only group projected to experience a rising burden. Despite an overall decline since 1990, the fracture burden in AYAs remains significant, particularly in high-SDI and conflict regions. Distinct fracture patterns in AYAs highlight the need for age-specific prevention strategies focusing on high-incidence and high-disability subtypes.