Predictive value of [¹⁸F]FDG PET-derived parameters for microsatellite instability and prognosis in patients with colorectal cancer.

Abstract

To investigate [¹⁸F]FDG PET-derived parameters for preoperative predictive value of microsatellite instability (MSI) status and clinical outcomes in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. [¹⁸F]FDG PET/CT with matched MSI status were retrospectively collected from two participating hospitals. The standard uptake value (SUV), metabolic tumour volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG) and intratumoural metabolic heterogeneity (IMH) index were calculated and compared between the microsatellite stability (MSS) and MSI high (MSI-H) groups. PET-derived parameters were dichotomized according to cut-off values, and regression analysis was conducted, including logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards modelling, to predict MSI status and postoperative progression, respectively. Among 182 CRC patients, 34 (18.7%) exhibited MSI-H, and progression was detected in 48 (26.4%) patients. The difference in CEA levels, tumour differentiation, pTNM, SUVmax, MTV, and IMH index between the two groups was statistically significant and correlated with MSI-H. Higher MTV and IMH indices independently correlated with MSI-H. Meanwhile, most clinicopathologic characteristics and PET-derived parameters were significant for predicting postoperative progression in the overall cohort and MSS subgroup patients, but not in the MSI-H group. Tumour differentiation, mucinous component, and IMH index were identified as independent predictors of progression-free survival for the MSS subgroup. In contrast, only poor/moderate-poor differentiation was associated with progression in the MSI-H group, with none of the PET-derived parameters showing statistical significance. The PET-derived parameters demonstrated promising performance in predicting MSI status in CRC patients and stratifying prognosis in the MSS subgroup. However, these parameters were unable to predict progression risk in MSI-H patients. Question Can PET-derived parameters offer a safe and non-invasive method to predict microsatellite instability (MSI) status in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and enhance prognostic stratification? Findings MSI-H CRC exhibited higher [18 F]FDG uptake and intratumoural metabolic heterogeneity compared with microsatellite stability (MSS) tumours, and PET-derived parameters can stratify the progression of CRC patients with MSS but not in MSI-H tumours. Clinical relevance Our study provides a non-invasive method based on PET-derived parameters to predict MSI status and enhance prognostic stratification of CRC patients with MSS, whereas the degree of [18 F]FDG uptake may not reflect the disease progression risk of MSI-H tumours.