Global, Regional, and National Epidemiology of Pediatric Urolithiasis (1990-2021) and 2040 Forecast.

Abstract

Pediatric urolithiasis is a common clinical condition that can cause kidney damage and long-term health complications. The aim of this study was to assess the trends in incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years of pediatric urolithiasis from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the burden of the disease in 2040. Detailed information on pediatric urolithiasis from 1990 to 2021 was collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 Database. Based on Global Burden of Disease data, a systematic approach was used to analyze the burden and trends in the incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years of pediatric urolithiasis from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the disease burden in 2040. In 2021, there were 1,560,000 new cases, representing a 15% increase compared with 1990, with 920,000 cases in boys (58%) and 640,000 cases in girls (41%). Prevalence rose by 15%, while disability-adjusted life years decreased by 43% compared with 1990. However, from 2015 to 2021, both incidence and prevalence of pediatric urolithiasis significantly increased. Regions with a lower Socio-Demographic Index exhibited higher incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years, exacerbating disparities in disease burden. By 2040, incidence is expected to exceed 1.53 million. Global incidence and prevalence are expected to continue rising. Although disability-adjusted life years have decreased, health inequities remain prominent, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index regions. To address the growing burden of pediatric urolithiasis, focusing on low-Socio-Demographic Index areas is crucial, prioritizing access to prevention and treatment resources to improve global child urological health.