Development and validation of an AI-driven radiomics model using non-enhanced CT for automated severity grading in chronic pancreatitis.

Abstract

To develop and validate the chronic pancreatitis CT severity model (CATS), an artificial intelligence (AI)-based tool leveraging automated 3D segmentation and radiomics analysis of non-enhanced CT scans for objective severity stratification in chronic pancreatitis (CP). This retrospective study encompassed patients with recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) and CP from June 2016 to May 2020. A 3D convolutional neural network segmented non-enhanced CT scans, extracting 1843 radiomic features to calculate the radiomics score (Rad-score). The CATS was formulated using multivariable logistic regression and validated in a subsequent cohort from June 2020 to April 2023. Overall, 2054 patients with RAP and CP were included in the training (n = 927), validation set (n = 616), and external test (n = 511) sets. CP grade I and II patients accounted for 300 (14.61%) and 1754 (85.39%), respectively. The Rad-score significantly correlated with the acinus-to-stroma ratio (p = 0.023; OR, -2.44). The CATS model demonstrated high discriminatory performance in differentiating CP severity grades, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.96 (95% CI: 0.94-0.98) and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.81-0.90) in the validation and test cohorts. CATS-predicted grades correlated with exocrine insufficiency (all p < 0.05) and showed significant prognostic differences (all p < 0.05). CATS outperformed radiologists in detecting calcifications, identifying all minute calcifications missed by radiologists. The CATS, developed using non-enhanced CT and AI, accurately predicts CP severity, reflects disease morphology, and forecasts short- to medium-term prognosis, offering a significant advancement in CP management. Question Existing CP severity assessments rely on semi-quantitative CT evaluations and multi-modality imaging, leading to inconsistency and inaccuracy in early diagnosis and prognosis prediction. Findings The AI-driven CATS model, using non-enhanced CT, achieved high accuracy in grading CP severity, and correlated with histopathological fibrosis markers. Clinical relevance CATS provides a cost-effective, widely accessible tool for precise CP severity stratification, enabling early intervention, personalized management, and improved outcomes without contrast agents or invasive biopsies.