Global, Regional, and National Burden of Neck Pain in Young Population, 1990-2021: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis and Projections to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Abstract

Study DesignEco-epidemiological study.ObjectiveAnalysis the spatial-temporal trends in neck pain burden among young people at global, regional, and national levels.MethodsData on neck pain among youth from 1990 to 2021 was sourced from the Global Burden Disease (GBD) 2021 database. This research delineated the evolving trends in neck pain burden by comparing various regions and timeframes, employing the age-period-cohort (APC) model to assess the factors effects on neck pain burden. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was utilized to forecast the global burden of neck pain among youth by 2050s.ResultsAlthough the global burden of neck pain shows a steady development trend, there is strong heterogeneity among regions. The burden was more severe in the females and high-middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) region. By APC model, the burden was found to increase with age, and the period effect showed an initial upward trend followed by a decline and rise final, although the relative risk remained above 1. The cohort effect indicated that the relative risks for global, higher SDI, initially decreased before rising, while the relative risks for low-middle SDI and low SDI regions have continued to increase over the years. Predictive modeling showed by 2050, the number of youth suffering from neck pain will continue.ConclusionsNeck pain remains an important health problem and poses a global public health challenge in the future, requiring prevention and control targeting key populations and regions.