Coupled, decoupled, and abrupt responses of vegetation to climate across timescales.

Abstract

Climate and ecosystem dynamics vary across timescales, but research into climate-driven vegetation dynamics usually focuses on singular timescales. We developed a spectral analysis-based approach that provides detailed estimates of the timescales at which vegetation tracks climate change, from 10¹ to 10⁵ years. We report dynamic similarity of vegetation and climate even at centennial frequencies (149^-1 to 18,012^-1 year^-1, that is, one cycle per 149 to 18,012 years). A breakpoint in vegetation turnover (797^-1 year^-1) matches a breakpoint between stochastic and autocorrelated climate processes, suggesting that ecological dynamics are governed by climate across these frequencies. Heightened vegetation turnover at millennial frequencies (4650^-1 year^-1) highlights the risk of abrupt responses to climate change, whereas vegetation-climate decoupling at frequencies >149^-1 year^-1 may indicate long-lasting consequences of anthropogenic climate change for ecosystem function and biodiversity.