Risk factors for voluntary early old-age retirement in middle-aged workers: A meta-analysis.

Abstract

This meta-analysis aimed to identify sociodemographic, lifestyle, work-related and health risk factors for voluntary early old-age retirement among middle-aged workers. Searches were conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, PsycInfo, and Scopus from their inception until February 2025. Observational longitudinal studies involving workers aged 40-64 years were included. Two reviewers evaluated the methodological quality of the studies. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed, and heterogeneity and publication bias were assessed. From 13 899 publications, 23 longitudinal studies (N=2 270 430 participants) were included. The following factors were associated with an increased risk of early old-age retirement: age [hazard ratio (HR) 1.35, 95% CI (confidence interval) 1.12-1.63 per year increase], overweight or obesity (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.03-1.17), physically demanding work (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.05-1.59), low job control (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.11-1.17), low influence at work (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.02-1.19), low organizational justice (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.10-1.46), lack of skills and knowledge development (HR 2.16, 95% CI 1.63-2.85), suboptimal self-rated general health (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.12-1.34), chronic physical conditions (HR 1.11, 95% CI 1.05-1.17), and depressive symptoms (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.12-1.61). Conversely, a lower risk was found among individuals who were unmarried, separated, or widowed (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.60-0.91). This meta-analysis underscores the impact of overweight, physical and psychosocial work factors, lacking skills and knowledge development and health conditions on early old-age retirement risk among middle-aged workers. Targeted interventions to encourage healthy lifestyles, foster a supportive work environment, and promote mental health may help to reduce early old-age retirement risk.