Increased Pitch-Specific Velocity, Spin Rate, and Horizontal Movement Lead to Increased Odds of Undergoing Ulnar Collateral Ligament Reconstruction in Professional Baseball Pitchers Using Baseball Savant Data.

Abstract

To evaluate advanced pitch-specific metrics to uncover which are associated with pitchers undergoing ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction (UCLR). A retrospective analysis was conducted using Major League Baseball pitchers who underwent UCLR between 2017 and 2024. Preinjury pitch metrics, including velocity, spin rate, movement profiles, and pitch use, were collected from the public database Baseball Savant and compared with league averages. To be included, pitchers must have had pitching data recorded in the Baseball Savant public database. Pitchers were excluded from the study if no data were found in Baseball Savant. Mann-Whitney U tests and logistic regression models were used to assess statistical differences and identify significant predictors of undergoing UCLR. A total of 132 pitchers who underwent UCLR were analyzed against 6,001 league-average pitchers. Pitchers with UCLR displayed greater average velocities for 4-seamers (94.6 miles per hour [mph] vs 93.2 mph, Δ1.4), sinkers (94.4 mph vs 92.7 mph, Δ1.7), cutters (90.0 mph vs 88.6 mph, Δ1.4), sliders (85.5 mph vs 84.4 mph, Δ1.1), changeups (86.9 mph vs 85.3 mph, Δ1.6), and curveballs (79.7 mph vs 78.5 mph, Δ1.4) (P < .001). Increased spin rate for 4-seamers (2,301.3 revolutions per minute [rpm] vs 2,253.2 rpm, Δ 48.1, P = .0004) and changeups (1810.8 rpm vs 1757.4 rpm, Δ 52.6, P = .04) also was noted. Decreased glove-side horizontal movement on cutters (1.3 inches vs 3.0 inches, Δ 1.7 inches, <.0001) and increased arm-side movement of changeups (14.1 inches vs 13.2 inches, Δ0.9 inches, P = .01) significantly increased odds of UCLR. Increased sinker velocity (odds ratio [OR] 1.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-1.40), 4-seamer velocity (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.18-1.37), changeup velocity (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12-1.28), and decreased glove-side cutter horizontal break (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.54-0.77) increased a pitcher's odds of undergoing UCLR. This study demonstrates that specific pitch characteristics, including increased velocity, increased spin rate, reduced glove-side horizontal movement of cutters, and increased arm-side horizontal movement of changeups, are associated with an increased likelihood of a pitcher undergoing UCLR. Level III, retrospective comparative series.