The relationship between virtual antenatal care and pregnancy outcomes in a diverse UK inner-city population: a group-based trajectory modeling approach using routine health records.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in major reconfiguration of maternity services, particularly an increase in virtual antenatal care. We explored associations between virtual antenatal care trajectories and pregnancy outcomes. Pregnancy and birth outcome data were obtained from a multiethnic and socioeconomically deprived UK inner-city population before and during the pandemic (with and without lockdown). Data were collected using a health record data linkage from the Born in South London cohort. Antenatal care was characterized by the number of outpatient contacts during 6 gestational windows: 0 to 14⁺⁶, 15 to 20⁺⁶, 21 to 27⁺⁶, 28 to 32⁺⁶, 33 to 36⁺⁶, and ≥37 weeks' gestation. In each window, the proportion of virtual antenatal care was grouped into quartiles, and group-based trajectory modeling was used to extract virtual antenatal care trajectories. Associations between these trajectories and pregnancy outcomes were explored using adjusted multinominal logistic regression. The analysis included 34,114 mother-child dyads (October 2018-July 2023). Group-based trajectory modeling suggested 4 trajectories of virtual antenatal care contacts: low and stable virtual care throughout pregnancy (Trajectory 0; n=27,751 pregnancies, 81.3%), high first trimester virtual care (Trajectory 1; n=832, 2.4%), high second trimester virtual care (Trajectory 2; n=2,410, 7.1%), and high third trimester virtual care (Trajectory 3; n=3,121, 9.2%). Following adjustment, compared with the low and stable group (Trajectory 0), high second trimester virtual care was associated with less gestational hypertension (adjusted relative risk ratio, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.96) and assisted vaginal birth (0.87 [0.76-1.00]), and more premature births (<37 weeks, 1.21 [1.02-1.44]), labor induction (1.13; 1.02-1.25), breech presentation (1.92; 1.02-3.62), and postpartum hemorrhage (1.14; 1.00-1.30). Similarly, compared to the low and stable group (Trajectory 0), high third trimester virtual care had less gestational hypertension (0.84 [0.73, 0.96]), more premature births (<37 weeks; 1.35; 1.16-1.58) and elective (1.54; 1.38-1.72) or emergency (1.21; 1.01-1.34) cesarean sections, and neonatal intensive care admissions (1.28; 1.09-1.50); fewer third-degree/fourth-degree vaginal tears (0.82; 0.75-0.90); and less early infant skin-to-skin contact (0.82; 0.73-0.92) and breastfeeding (0.90; 0.81-0.99). A higher proportion of virtual care contacts in antenatal care in the second or third trimesters was associated with a greater risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes.