Plausible global emissions scenario for 2 °C aligned with China's net-zero pathway.

Abstract

Due to sizeable anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, China's transition towards carbon neutrality will reshape global CO₂ emissions, offering insights into warming levels, extreme events, overshoot, tipping points, and regional climate impacts. Here we develop an interdisciplinary and multi-model framework integrating up-to-date emissions inventory and China's net-zero pathway to construct a reality-aligned, sector-specific combined scenario (SSP2-com) for greenhouse gases and air pollutants across global-to-regional, national-to-provincial, and multi-resolution-grid scales. SSP2-com projects CO₂ peaking in concentration globally by 2062, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2072, driven by Asia-Pacific-particularly China-via energy and industrial reductions. Climate emulators show global temperatures initially track SSP2-4.5 but later diverge onto a distinct trajectory, reaching 2.01 °C by 2100 ( ~ 3.2 Watt m⁻²) and dropping below 2 °C within the first post-2100 decade, relevant to the Paris Agreement target. We further propose an evolving SSP2-com+ framework with updated trajectories to enhance timely alignment and cooperation. Our findings indicate balanced, nationally-determined decarbonization can stabilize warming near 2 °C without early unprecedented decarbonization rates or large-scale carbon removal, aligning better with current status and commitments for more plausible Earth system model inputs.