Opportunities for machine learning to predict cross-neutralization in FMDV serotype O.

Abstract

Accurately estimating cross-neutralization between serotype O foot-and-mouth disease viruses (FMDVs) is critical for guiding vaccine selection and disease management. In this study, we developed a machine learning approach to estimate r1 values-an established measure of antigenic similarity-using VP1 sequence data and published virus neutralization titer (VNT) results. Our dataset comprised 108 serum-virus pairs representing 73 distinct FMDV strains. We applied Boruta feature selection and random forest classifiers, optimizing model performance through tenfold cross-validation and sub-sampling to address class imbalance. Predictors included pairwise amino acid distances, site-specific polymorphisms, and differences in potential N-glycosylation sites. Using a 0.3 r1 threshold to define cross-neutralization, the final model achieved high accuracy (0.96), sensitivity (0.93), and specificity (0.96) in training, and performed robustly on independent test sets - accuracy was 0.75 (95% CI 0.60 and 0.90), F1 score 0.86% and PPV 0.77. Importantly, key VP1 residues-positions 48, 100, 135, 150, and 151-emerged as strong predictors of antigenic relationships. Our results demonstrate the utility of integrating routinely generated genomic data with machine learning to inform vaccine candidate selection and anticipate immune interactions among circulating FMDV strains. This approach offers a practical tool for accelerating vaccine decision-making and can be adapted to other FMDV serotypes. The latest version of the r1 predictive model is available for access via a Shiny dashboard (https://dmakau.shinyapps.io/PredImmune-FMD/).