Impact of current and warmer climate conditions on snow cover loss in burned forests.

Abstract

Wildfires are increasingly burning in snow-dominated watersheds and can alter snowmelt dynamics. However, the spatial variability of snow cover loss in burned forests has been under characterized. Here, we use remotely sensed snow data to show that, under average winter conditions, snow melts earlier in the first year postfire in 99% of the snow zone. Postfire snow cover loss is more extreme in relatively low-elevation, warm environments compared to that in high-elevation, cold regions. Under +2°C of warming, 73% of the snow zone would experience more extreme earlier postfire snowmelt compared to historically average conditions. Regions with the largest shift earlier in postfire snowmelt timing under average climate conditions also have the largest shift earlier in postfire snowmelt under +2°C warming. The spatial variability in postfire snowmelt timing and exacerbated impact in projected warmer winters affect ecosystem water availability, snow albedo feedbacks, and snowmelt runoff forecasting essential to water resource management.