Integrating multiple data sources to predict all-cause readmission or mortality in patients with substance misuse.

Abstract

Patients with substance misuse who are admitted to the hospital are at heightened risk for adverse outcomes, such as readmission and death. This study aims to develop methods to identify at-risk patients to facilitate timely interventions that can improve outcomes and optimize healthcare resources. To accomplish this, we leveraged the Substance Misuse Data Commons to predict 30-day death or readmission from hospital discharge in patients with substance misuse. We explored several machine learning algorithms and approaches to integrate information from multiple data sources, such as structured features from a patient's electronic health record (EHR), unstructured clinical notes, socioeconomic data, and emergency medical services (EMS) data. Our gradient-boosted machine model, which combined structured EHR data, socioeconomic status, and EMS data, was the best-performing model (c-statistic 0.746 [95% CI: 0.732-0.759]), outperforming other machine learning methods and structured data source combinations. The addition of unstructured text did not improve performance, suggesting a need for further exploration of how to leverage unstructured data effectively. Feature importance plots highlighted the importance of prior hospital and EMS encounters and discharge disposition in predicting our primary outcome. In conclusion, we integrated multiple data sources that offer complementary information from data sources beyond the typically used EHRs for risk assessment in patients with substance misuse.