Global and regional burden of inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernia among older population: Findings from Global Burden of Disease database.

Abstract

This study aimed to assess the global and regional burden of inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernia among individuals aged 60 years and above from 1990 to 2021, using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. The analysis focused on incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years, with a detailed examination of age, sex, and regional disparities. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database, extracting data on incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years for inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernia among individuals aged 60 years and above. Age-standardized rates were calculated, and temporal trends from 1990 to 2021 were quantified using estimated annual percentage change. Regional variations were explored across 204 countries and territories, and sociodemographic index regions. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to identify temporal trends, whereas Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling provided projections through 2050. In 2021, an estimated 36,877 deaths (95% uncertainty interval: 31,269-43,197) occurred because of inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernia globally among individuals aged 60 years and above, with an age-standardized death rate of 3.62 (95% uncertainty interval: 3.06-4.23) per 100,000 population, declining by -1.72% (95% confidence interval: -1.88 to -1.55) annually. Disability-adjusted life years reached 811,296 (95% uncertainty interval: 683,554-970,553), with an age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate of 76.23 (95% uncertainty interval: 64.26-91.00) per 100,000, declining by -1.76% (95% confidence interval: -1.88 to -1.64) annually. Incidence rose from 943,797 (95% uncertainty interval: 597,192-1,401,851) in 1990 to 1,480,996 (95% uncertainty interval: 939,275-2,168,972) in 2021, with a slight annual decline in age-standardized incidence rate (-0.84% [95% confidence interval: -1.02 to -0.67]). Prevalence increased from 2,519,472 (95% uncertainty interval: 1,852,442-3,287,447) in 1990 to 3,616,357 (95% uncertainty interval: 2,610,365-4,812,502) in 2021. Regional disparities were evident, with the highest burden observed in South Asia and Central Europe. Bayesian age-period-cohort model projections indicated a continued rise in absolute burden by 2050, despite declining age-standardized rates for most metrics except incidence. The global burden of inguinal, femoral, and abdominal hernia among individuals aged 60 years and above remains substantial, with significant regional disparities. While absolute numbers are projected to rise, age-standardized rates are expected to decline, except for incidence. These findings underscore the need for targeted prevention and optimized health care strategies for older populations globally.