Projected Shortages and Distributional Challenges of Obstetrician-Gynecologists in the United States, 2025-2035.

Abstract

Precision in obstetrician-gynecologist (ob-gyn) workforce planning requires comprehensive projections of supply and demand. Using the Health Workforce Simulation Model from the Health Resources & Services Administration and publicly available datasets, we assessed the adequacy of the number of ob-gyns across all U.S. states to forecast changes from 2025 to 2035. In 2025, the national supply met 93.4% of the demand, with significant geographic disparities. By 2035, all but six states are projected to experience inadequate supplies of ob-gyns, with a particularly severe shortfall in nonmetropolitan areas. Mitigation strategies include expanding the ob-gyn pipeline, retaining the existing workforce, integrating advanced-practice clinicians using technology to extend reach, and optimizing care-delivery models.