Recent slowing of Arctic sea ice melt tied to multidecadal NAO variability.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 41006277.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-025-63520-0 and PMC identifier 12475394.
- Licence recorded as CC BY-NC-ND.
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Abstract
The reduction of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) is a key indicator of global warming. In September 2012, SIC reached its lowest recorded value. Since then, sea ice melt has slowed down, showing a linear trend of only -0.4±6.8%/decade from 2012 to 2023, compared to -11.3±3.3%/decade from 1996 to 2011. Here, we demonstrate that the recent slowdown in September sea ice melt is closely coupled with the multi-decadal variability of the preceding summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has transitioned from the lowest point of its negative phase in the early 2010s to a positive phase. During this shift, decreased heat and moisture, along with reduced downward longwave radiation, have contributed to offsetting the long-term decline, leading to a slowdown in Arctic sea ice melting. Additionally, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation plays a primary role in driving the interdecadal variability of the NAO and Arctic sea ice by modulating wave-mean flow interactions.