Global, Regional, and National Burden of Environmental Heat and Cold Exposure in Adults Aged 55 Years and Older From 1990 to 2021: A Trend Analysis.

Li, Wen-Jie; Deng, Jia-Jun; Cheng, Xue-Er; Li, Xiao-Xiao; Chang, Yu-Wan; Tao, Sha-Sha; Pan, Hai-Feng · J Occup Environ Med · 2026

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Abstract

This study aimed to analyze temporal trends of environmental heat and cold exposure (EHCE)-related burden among adults aged 55 years and older. Using the Global Burden of Disease database, we examined EHCE-related incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs trends from 1990 to 2021 via joinpoint regression, assessing global, regional, and national patterns by sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Global EHCE incidence declined (AAPC, -1.46), more in males (AAPC, -1.62) than females (AAPC, -1.23), notably in ages 55 to 59 years (AAPC, -1.77). High-middle-SDI nations had the largest incidence drop (AAPC, -2.29), but mortality (AAPC, 1.07) and DALYs (AAPC, 0.38) rose in high-SDI countries. High-income Asia Pacific showed increased incidence (AAPC, 0.96). Global EHCE burden in older adults decreased, but high-income regions showed stagnation or reversal, urging revised response strategies.

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