The quarantine hospital strategy as a way to reduce both community and nosocomial transmission in the context of a COVID-like epidemic.

Abstract

Nosocomial infections of both patients and healthcare workers (HCWs) in hospitals may play an important part in the overall dynamics of a viral pandemic, as evidenced by the recent COVID-19 experience. A strategy to control this risk consists in dedicating some hospitals to the care of infected patients only, with HCWs alternating between shifts of continuous stay within these hospitals and periods of isolation. This strategy has been implemented locally in various settings and generalized in Egypt. Here, using a mathematical model coupling hospitals and community, we assess the impact of this strategy on overall epidemic dynamics. We find that quarantine hospitals may significantly reduce the number of cumulative cases, as well as the peak incidence, when effective control strategies are in place in the community and symptomatic HCWs comply with self-isolation recommendations. Our results, which are robust to variations in assumed biological characteristics of the virus, suggest that the quarantine hospital strategy could be considered in future pandemic contexts to best protect the entire population.