Stagnating declines in cardiovascular disease mortality in the United States expanded the black-white life expectancy gap.

Abstract

To assess how stagnation in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality declines since 2010 impacted racial disparities in life expectancy between Black and White Americans. We analyzed U.S. vital statistics from 2000 to 2022 to compare age-standardized CVD mortality trends in Black and White middle-aged and older adults. Using life tables, we then estimated racial differences in life expectancy under observed mortality conditions and under a counterfactual scenario in which CVD mortality had continued to decline in 2010-2022 at pre-2010 rates. In 2000-2009, CVD mortality was declining more quickly among Black Americans, and the Black-White life expectancy gap narrowed by 1.39 years for women and 1.44 years for men. Progress slowed after 2010. Had pre-2010 CVD mortality trends continued, Black women would have lived 2.04 years longer in 2019, narrowing the 1.88-year Black-White life expectancy gap by 0.43 years. If improvements had continued through 2022, Black women would have lived 2.83 years longer, translating to a 0.64-year reduction in the Black-White life expectancy gap. Men exhibited a similar pattern with a smaller effect. The post-2010 slowdown in CVD mortality declines disproportionately limited longevity gains for Black Americans, especially Black women.