Increasing extreme winds challenge offshore wind energy resilience.

Abstract

Climate change is amplifying the intensity of extreme strong winds, threatening the development and resilience of offshore wind energy systems. The ability of wind turbines to endure such conditions is determined by the fifty-year return period wind speed (U₅₀), a key parameter for turbine design. However, the long-term trends and spatial variability of U₅₀ across global oceans remain largely unexplored. Here, we utilize hourly ERA5 wind speed data at 100 meters above sea level from 1940 to 2023 to reveals a significant global increase in oceanic U₅₀ of 0.016 m s⁻¹ yr^-1 (p < 0.01), with upward trends evident in 62.85% of coastal regions. Notably, over 40% of both commissioned and planned offshore wind farms in Asia and Europe have encountered wind speeds exceeding the design threshold of Class III turbines (37.5 m s⁻¹). More than half of these wind farms are situated in regions with increasing U₅₀ trends, a pattern strongly associated with changes in tropical and extratropical cyclone activity under global warming. These findings underscore the critical need to adapt offshore wind energy infrastructure to withstand evolving wind extremes.