Premature Deaths and Life-Years Lost From Lack of Amivantamab in Brazil's Unified Health System.

Abstract

Lung cancer remains a leading cause of cancer mortality in Brazil, with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) accounting for 85% of cases, with 1.6% carrying epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) exon 20 mutations. In the phase I CHRYSALIS trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02609776), amivantamab demonstrated a median overall survival (OS) of 22.8 months versus 8.3 months with docetaxel, the standard second-line Brazil's Unified Health System (SUS) therapy. Although the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency approved amivantamab, the National Commission for the Incorporation of Technologies' cost-effectiveness reviews result in an average 10-year delay before SUS incorporation. We aimed to estimate premature deaths and life-years lost attributable to this access gap. Using National Institute of Cancer (INCA) data, we estimated SUS-eligible patients, NSCLC prevalence, and EGFR exon 20 frequency. Stage distribution and 5-year recurrence rates identify candidates for amivantamab. A hazard ratio (HR) was derived from the inverse exponential method (ln(2)/OS ratio). Preventable deaths were calculated as: eligible patients × (1 - HR). Life-years gained per patient were estimated as OS difference. Of the 26,548 new patients with lung cancer, 18,973 are SUS-eligible, 16,127 have NSCLC, and 258 have EGFR exon 20 mutations. Metastatic disease accounts for 114, whereas recurrences occur in 60 (stage III), eight (II), and four (I), totaling 186 candidates annually. With an HR of 0.364, the annual preventable death in the base-case scenario is equal to 186 × (1 - 0.364) × 95% = 112 patients. Over 10 years, 1,120 premature deaths and 1,353 life-years could be avoided. Delayed SUS incorporation of amivantamab may result in over a 1,000 preventable deaths and life-years lost among Brazilian EGFR exon 20-mutated NSCLC. Urgent real-world studies and cost-effectiveness analyses are needed.