Rising worldwide challenges to climate-induced extreme low-production events of photovoltaic and wind power.
Where this comes from
- Record sourced from PubMed, PMID 41372217.
- Also identified by DOI 10.1038/s41467-025-67428-7 and PMC identifier 12819467.
- Licence recorded as CC BY-NC-ND.
- Because redistribution is not established, this page shows the abstract only. Follow the links below for the full text.
Abstract
The global shift toward solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power is crucial to climate mitigation, yet climate change may intensify extreme low-production (ELP) events and affect power reliability. Here, we assess future ELP changes under low (SSP1-2.6), intermediate (SSP2-4.5), and high (SSP3-7.0) greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions scenarios. Even under SSP1-2.6, rising ELP risks are projected to affect more than one-third of global regions, expanding to nearly two-thirds under SSP3-7.0, regardless of whether systems rely on PV, wind, or both. Increases in ELP for wind power are nearly inevitable, with over 75% of currently installed areas experiencing 14.0-24.5% greater production anomalies by the late century. PV power diverges strongly across scenarios, shifting from a 14.8% decrease in anomaly under SSP1-2.6 to a 26.4% increase under SSP3-7.0, particularly in East Asia. Additionally, climate-induced risks disproportionately narrow the benefits of PV development in low- and lower-middle-income economies, where ELP risks rise at 1.8 times the global rate under SSP3-7.0. Our results underscore the need for coordinated mitigation and adaptation to secure power reliability in a changing climate.