Plastic Surgery Workforce Projections in the United States (2022-2037): Anticipating Shortfalls Using the Health Workforce Simulation Model.

Abstract

Plastic surgery is among the most diverse surgical specialties, contributing to reconstructive, aesthetic, and functional care. However, little is known about its long-term workforce adequacy in the United States. As demand rises, concerns have emerged regarding maldistribution, training bottlenecks, and the specialty's ability to meet future needs. Workforce projections from 2022 to 2037 were obtained from the Health Resources and Services Administration's Health Workforce Simulation Model, which estimates physician supply and demand by specialty and region. Supply was measured in full-time equivalents, accounting for new trainees, retirements, and attrition. Demand was modeled under two scenarios: status quo and reduced barriers (expanded access for underserved populations). Workforce adequacy (supply-to-demand ratio) was assessed nationally, regionally, and by state using descriptive statistics and heat maps generated in Python and Excel. Plastic surgery supply is projected to decline by 22.1% by 2037, while demand will increase by 6%. National adequacy will fall from 100% to 74% under the status quo scenario and to 52% under reduced barriers. Non-metro areas are projected to remain critically underserved, with adequacy declining from 20% to 15%. By 2037, 46 states are expected to face workforce deficits. Plastic surgery is projected to have the lowest adequacy of all 37 specialties analyzed under the reduced barriers model. A substantial mismatch between supply and demand is anticipated in the U.S. plastic surgery workforce over the next decade. Addressing this will require expanded training pathways, targeted distribution, and policies that reduce access barriers to ensure equitable surgical care.