Quantifying vector diversion effects in zoonotic systems: A modelling framework for arbovirus transmission between reservoir and dead-end hosts.

Abstract

Vector-borne disease transmission involves complex interactions between vectors, reservoir hosts and dead-end hosts. We present a mathematical model for the vectorial capacity that incorporates multiple host types and their interactions, focusing specifically on West Nile virus transmission by Culex pipiens mosquitoes. Our model integrates climate-dependent parameters affecting vector biology with vector control interventions to predict transmission potential under various scenarios. We demonstrate how vector control interventions targeting one host type can significantly impact transmission dynamics across all host populations. By examining the effects of different vector control tool modes of action (repellency, preprandial killing, disarming and postprandial killing), we develop target product profiles that minimise unintended consequences of vector control. Notably, we identify the optimal intervention characteristics needed to prevent repellency on dead-end hosts from inadvertently increasing transmission among reservoir hosts. This research provides valuable insights for public health officials designing targeted vector control strategies and offers a flexible modelling framework that can be adapted to other vector-borne diseases with complex host dynamics.