Mitigating urban‒rural disparities in humid-heat risks in China.

Abstract

Global warming is intensifying compound humid-heat threats, yet long-term risk assessments accounting for urban‒rural disparities remain scarce. In this study, we develop a comprehensive risk assessment framework by integrating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change risk approach with indicators from the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals related to humid-heat mitigation and adaptation. Applying this framework to China from 2001 to 2020, we find that sustainable development progress substantially reduces vulnerability, particularly in urban areas, leading to a decline in humid-heat risk. In contrast, rural areas show a slower vulnerability reduction compared to urban areas and show no statistically significant change in humid-heat risk, despite a narrowing urban-rural risk gap. Regional disparities in sustainable development are key drivers of risk heterogeneity in both urban and rural settings. Our findings underscore the urgency of coordinated urban-rural development to simultaneously advance sustainable development and climate adaptation.