Price convergence in grain markets with seasonal differences.

Abstract

Using weekly price data from 97 Nigerian markets, we examine how seasonal harvest timing shapes price dynamics for staple grains using a dyadic panel design. Our analysis reveals that markets operating in the same harvest phase experience faster price convergence, while asynchronous seasonal conditions slow adjustments-particularly for local rice and cowpea. In contrast, imported long-grain rice shows stable price behavior throughout the year. These results highlight the critical influence of seasonal cycles on market integration and offer fresh insights for food security strategies.