Dynamic interdependence between consumer confidence and housing prices: Evidence from bootstrap rolling window causality tests.

Abstract

This paper examines the bidirectional relationship between consumer confidence (CC) and housing prices (HP) using a bootstrap sub-sample rolling causality test. The results show that CC and HP interact dynamically, with the direction of causality depending on economic conditions and participants' behaviors. On one hand, rising CC can stimulate housing demand, pushing HP upward. Conversely, when economic uncertainty rises, housing may serve as a hedge asset, attracting investment even amid weak CC, which further drives HP growth. Meanwhile, HP fluctuations also asymmetrically impact CC. Higher HP can boost household wealth and CC, but excessive HP growth may strain affordability, increasing mortgage burdens and reducing CC. These findings highlight the time-varying, reciprocal nature of CC-HP linkages, emphasizing the need for adaptive policy responses to stabilize both markets during economic turbulence.