Vegetation greening drives long-term dust mitigation in Eastern Asia.

Abstract

Dryland vegetation dynamics play a fundamental role in dust mitigation. While weaker winds have driven recent dust decline in Eastern Asia, the long-term influence of vegetation remains overlooked. Here, using a physically based modeling approach that partitions the drivers of dust emissions across timescales, we reveal that surface wind dominates interannual variability, negatively correlated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. On a multidecadal scale, however, vegetation cover emerges as the key driver, reducing dust emissions by 32.5% since the early 2000s-a trend projected to continue through 2100. Without these vegetation gains, dust emissions would increase under various CMIP6 projections. Vegetation contributions are uneven: greening of perennial dryland vegetation in sparsely vegetated regions (<15% cover; responsible for 95% of dust emissions) offers the greatest mitigation by stabilizing the land surface and suppressing long-term emissions. These findings highlight priority areas for ecological restoration to sustain dust reduction and advance regional sustainability goals.