Effects of Job Lock and Work Arrangements on the Incidence of Occupational Injuries to Older Workers in the Health and Retirement Study, 2010-2022.

Abstract

Job lock-when older workers cannot retire owing to financial or health insurance needs-is potentially an occupational safety issue. This study explored the longitudinal effect of job lock on work-related injuries to older workers, hypothesizing that job lock increases their injury rates. It then examined how this relationship varies across work arrangements. Analysis using 2010-2022 Health and Retirement Study data for workers aged 55-64 years and ≥65 years compared work exposures in each wave with injuries reported in the next wave. Repeated-measures negative binomial regression estimated longitudinal effects of job lock (financial, health insurance, or both) on work-related injuries, exploring effect modification by work arrangements (full time, part time, partly retired, self-employed). Analysis was conducted in 2025. Workers aged 55-64 years overall had 51.8 work-related injuries per 1,000 person-years, compared with 44.3 work-related injuries per 1,000 person-years for workers aged ≥65 years. Among those aged 55-64 years, these rates were 48% higher with job lock for financial reasons (incidence rate ratio=1.48 [95% CI=1.04, 2.13]) and similarly for health insurance reasons. Potentially stronger effects were observed for workers in full time (incidence rate ratio=1.57 [95% CI=1.15, 2.16]) and possibly part-time roles (incidence rate ratio=1.72 [95% CI=0.86, 3.46]). After age 65 years, these data suggest that workers had a 29% higher injury rate from financial job lock (incidence rate ratio=1.29 [95% CI=0.66, 2.51]). Job lock was associated with higher work-related injury rates, particularly for those in full- or part-time roles before age 65 years. For self-employed, partly retired, or workers aged >65 years, job lock presented less clear injury risk, possibly from differences in job tasks or selection into safer roles. Further research should address mechanisms of job lock to elevate injury risks. Improving access to retirement resources earlier in workers' careers may help to address work-related injuries and economic challenges of aging.