Geographic Patterns of Firearms With Short Time to Crime in the U.S. and the Americas, 2015-2023.

Abstract

A short time-to-crime (TTC)-the interval between a firearm's retail sale and its recovery in a crime-is a key indicator of firearms trafficking. Guns recovered within one year of purchase are especially likely to have entered illegal markets. Understanding these flows is critical for enforcement and public health efforts. This study examines the origins and recovery sites of firearms with short TTCs (≤1 year) across the U.S., Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean to identify trafficking patterns and inform policy. ATF firearms tracing data from 2015-2023 were analyzed, including domestic recoveries linked to federally licensed dealers and international recoveries obtained via FOIA requests. Rates and proportions of samestate versus out-of-state recoveries were calculated, and major trafficking routes were identified. Data collection and analyses were conducted in 2025. Among 604,968 firearms with TTC ≤1 year, 83.3% were recovered in the same state of sale, 15.3% in other U.S. jurisdictions, and 1.3% internationally-mainly in Mexico. States most frequently traced for short-TTC firearms included Arizona, Louisiana, Nevada, South Carolina, and Georgia. Twelve trafficking corridors exceeded 1,000 firearms, notably Arizona-to-California and Texas-to-Mexico. States with stricter gun laws showed higher rates of out-of-state short-TTC recoveries, reflecting inflows from less regulated states. Short-TTC firearms primarily circulate locally, emphasizing the need for strong state-level controls. However, prominent trafficking corridors and cross-border flows highlight the importance of coordinated enforcement and policy collaboration to reduce firearm trafficking and related violence across the Americas.