Health Benefits of Screening for Co-occurring Alcohol-, Substance-, and Mood-related Conditions for At-Risk Populations: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

Abstract

Co-occurring alcohol, substance, and mood-related (CASM) conditions are prevalent, mutually reinforcing, and under-diagnosed contributors to morbidity, mortality, and health disparities. To evaluate screening strategies leveraging the predictive value arising from patterns of CASM co-occurrence in populations with high CASM prevalence. Individual-based health risks model validated to predict US life expectancy and causes of death by sex and age decile, including CASM conditions of depression, anxiety, chronic pain, and unhealthy alcohol, tobacco, opioid and stimulant use. The model includes CASM co-occurrence patterns, mutual reinforcement across CASM conditions, and reduced engagement in other preventative care due to CASM. Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS), a large longitudinal cohort of in-care US veterans. (1) Screening alcohol, tobacco, and/or depression symptoms; (2) adding further screening of CASM conditions likely to co-occur with those screened positive, with variation in the minimum co-occurrence rate; (3) screening all CASM conditions (hypothetical maximum). Estimated life expectancy (LE) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The maximum strategy added 0.52 years to estimated LE (95% CI: 0.51 - 0.54) and 0.68 QALYs/person (95% CI: 0.67 - 0.69). Screening individual CASM conditions added a small fraction of this benefit, the largest LE gain from tobacco screening: 0.08 years (95% CI: 0.07 - 0.09). Screening for depression, alcohol, and tobacco provided 34.6% of the maximum strategy's LE gain (0.19 years, 95% CI: 0.17 - 0.20). Additionally screening conditions with moderate (≥ 20%) probability of co-occurring with those already screened positive provided 84.8% of the maximum strategy's LE gain. Screening all CASM conditions if depression, alcohol, and/or tobacco screened positive provided 86.6% of the maximum strategy's LE gain. Compared to common practice of screening one or few CASM conditions, large health benefits are possible by further assessing CASM conditions most likely to co-occur with those already screening positive, improving health without increasing up-front screening burden in populations with high CASM prevalence.