Trapped in declining occupations: Barriers to worker mobility in a changing economy.

Abstract

The US has undergone substantial changes in jobs, occupations, and mobility over the past two decades. Using administrative data from the US Occupational Outlook Handbook (2000 to 2020), we examine how immediate and projected occupational restructuring affects workers' mobility. In an update to prior research, we find that workers in both growing and declining occupations experience greater mobility than those in stable occupations. However, the direction of movement varies. Workers in declining occupations often move laterally into other declining occupations, with nearly 60% experiencing downward mobility. In contrast, growing occupations offer better prospects for upward mobility, particularly for workers transitioning from declining to growing occupations, where almost 50% enter higher-paying occupations. However, these moves to emerging jobs are relatively rare, accounting for only 5% of all occupational movements. These results highlight how recent shifts in the occupational structure exacerbate existing disadvantages for workers facing declining job opportunities.